Gold Sector - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0%, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, particularly in December [1] - The World Bank forecasts an average gold price of $3,575 next year, with a potential increase of 5%, reaching double the average from 2015-2019 [1] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng believes that the second rate cut this year is already priced in, leading to weak gold performance [1] - Technically, gold has shown weak performance after a decline, with potential resistance at $4,070 [1] Oil Sector - The OPEC+ meeting on November 2 is expected to result in a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December to gradually regain market share [2] - The International Energy Agency reported a significant drop in oil inventories by 6.86 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - Despite the inventory drop, U.S. oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to a record 1,364.4 million barrels per day, failing to support a price increase [2] - Technically, oil is forming a double bottom structure, with support at $55 and resistance at $62.50 [2] Dollar Index - The European Central Bank maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, citing uncertainty in the eurozone due to global trade and geopolitical tensions [3] - Following the Fed's meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is at 74.7%, with a 57.7% chance of maintaining the current rate [3] - The dollar is showing signs of a bottoming pattern, with potential resistance at 100.20 and support at 99.32 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is in a strong bullish trend with no signs of a peak, showing accelerated upward movement [4] - The focus is on the 51,500 level as a key support and resistance line [4] Copper Sector - Copper prices have been fluctuating within a wide range, with a key support level at $4.94; a drop below this level may indicate a trend reversal [5] - Recent price action shows a pullback after reaching highs, with resistance at $5.11 [5] Market Overview - Trump indicated a potentially large agreement involving oil and gas purchases from Alaska [7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed appreciation for the Fed's rate cut but dissatisfaction with the wording, highlighting the need for significant reforms [7] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high in the third quarter of this year [7]
智昇黄金原油分析：降息如期进行 黄金目标上移
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-31 09:42