内有鹰派施压，外有日元暴跌！日本央行还能“按兵不动”多久？

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, but Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated an increased likelihood of rate hikes in the near future, similar to the situation before the last rate increase in January [2] - The Bank of Japan raised its growth forecast for the year while warning of ongoing global uncertainties, reflecting an optimistic outlook for Japan's economic recovery [2] - The upcoming wage negotiations in 2024 are seen as a critical factor for potential rate hikes, with the largest labor union aiming for a wage increase of 5% or more [3][4] Group 2 - Pressure is mounting within the Bank of Japan's nine-member board for earlier action on interest rates, with two members reiterating their recommendation to raise rates to 0.75% [3] - External influences, such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments urging the new Japanese government to allow the Bank of Japan to raise rates, are contributing to the discussion on monetary tightening [3] - Analysts suggest that the timing of any rate hike may depend significantly on the yen's performance, as a declining yen could increase import costs and overall inflation [4][6] Group 3 - Despite hawkish comments from Governor Ueda, the yen fell to a near nine-month low against the dollar, indicating market skepticism about immediate rate hikes [5] - Core consumer inflation in Tokyo rose in October, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [5] - The potential for further cost-of-living increases could conflict with the new Prime Minister's commitment to alleviate inflationary pressures on households [6]