国家免疫规划扩容：免费HPV疫苗即将开打，行业洗牌加速

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is set to significantly reduce disease burden and enhance public health, while intensifying market competition and accelerating industry restructuring [2][3]. Group 1: National Immunization Program - The National Health Commission and other departments have announced that starting from November 10, 2025, the HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program, providing free vaccinations for girls born after November 10, 2011, who are at least 13 years old [1][4]. - Approximately 60% of eligible girls in China have already benefited from local government initiatives providing free HPV vaccinations [1][3]. - The program aims to address the rising incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer in China, particularly among younger women [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The government procurement project for the HPV vaccine has a budget of approximately 425 million yuan, covering 15.4465 million doses, with a maximum price of 27.5 yuan per dose [7]. - Currently, there are three approved bivalent HPV vaccines in China, with increasing competition as domestic companies enter the market [7][9]. - The price of bivalent HPV vaccines has been decreasing, with recent procurement prices dropping to 27.5 yuan per dose, significantly lower than initial market prices [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Major companies like Wantai Biological Pharmacy and Watson Bio are experiencing significant revenue declines, with Wantai's revenue dropping by 23.09% in the first three quarters of 2023 [9]. - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term growth potential of the HPV vaccine market remains strong, with projections indicating a market size increase from 13.5 billion yuan in 2020 to 69 billion yuan by 2030 [9]. - Industry experts suggest that companies should increase R&D investments and accelerate the development of higher-valent vaccines to meet diverse market needs [9].