专访AMRO首席经济学家何东：国际货币体系存在较大网络效应，数字货币兴起带来显著机遇

Core Insights - The international monetary landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a trend towards diversification of non-dollar currencies and the rapid application of emerging technologies like blockchain in digital currency development [1][5][7] Group 1: International Monetary System - The process of "de-dollarization" is still under observation, but the evolution of the international monetary system presents opportunities for currencies like the Renminbi [1][6] - The weakening of the US dollar is attributed to multiple factors, including its overvaluation and concerns regarding the US fiscal situation, leading to a depreciation of approximately 10% compared to early 2025 [5][6] - Countries are not necessarily pursuing "de-dollarization" but are focusing on risk management strategies in response to the changing landscape [6] Group 2: Digital Currency and Blockchain - The rise of digital currencies offers significant opportunities in two main areas: financial inclusion and cross-border payments, potentially reducing costs through a unified blockchain network [7][8] - Blockchain technology can address issues of data independence among financial institutions, enhancing data portability and privacy [8] - The development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is still in the exploratory phase, with varying strategies among developed and emerging markets [10] Group 3: ASEAN and Regional Cooperation - The ASEAN economies have experienced a slowdown this year but remain stable, with potential for growth in investment and trade within the "ASEAN+3" framework [3] - The integration of ASEAN with China, Japan, and South Korea can leverage financial and technological advantages to foster internal growth and productivity [3] Group 4: Renminbi Internationalization - High levels of openness in the Chinese economy are crucial for the internationalization of the Renminbi, supported by stable economic growth and deepening financial markets [12] - The gradual process of Renminbi internationalization is influenced by external factors, including US policy changes that may affect the dollar's dominance [12]