美元霸权失灵！中美吉隆坡谈判后，中国王牌显现，美经济仍难缓解

Group 1: Structural and Political Dynamics - The core structural contradictions between China and the U.S. will not necessarily end with one side conceding, but rather through a reconfiguration of global power dynamics and rule-making authority [2][4] - The current U.S.-China competition reflects historical patterns of power struggles among major nations, where a dominant power seeks to maintain the existing order while a rising power seeks reasonable development space [4][10] Group 2: Economic Disparities - The fundamental economic misalignment between the world's largest manufacturing country (China) and the largest currency issuer (U.S.) is unprecedented in history, as historical hegemons typically held both roles [6][8] - China's industrial capacity accounts for over 53% of global production, while the U.S. only holds about 15% of global industrial capacity, leading to a reliance on China for manufacturing support [8][10] Group 3: Negotiation Strategies - Negotiations are seen as a strategic choice for China to gain advantages over time, particularly as its emerging industries like electric vehicles and renewable energy continue to grow [10][12] - For the U.S., negotiations represent a desperate attempt to buy time amid severe industrial hollowing, with significant declines in its manufacturing capabilities [12][14] Group 4: Key Industries and Strategic Resources - China will not compromise on critical sectors such as rare earths and semiconductors, supported by its dominant position in the entire supply chain from extraction to production [16][18] - The advancements in domestic technology sectors, such as semiconductor manufacturing and battery technology, are seen as essential to national strategy and cannot be reversed [18][19] Group 5: Global Influence and Currency Dynamics - China's ability to dictate terms in global trade, including the use of the renminbi for transactions, is a reflection of its production dominance and a shift in global discourse [23][24] - The potential decline of the U.S. dollar's dominance is linked to the loss of its underlying industrial support, which could lead to a significant shift in global economic power [26]