春秋航空(601021)2025年三季报点评:客座率高位、票价承压 业绩有望稳增

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 16.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.3% to 2.336 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.167 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [2]. - The overall revenue for the first three quarters was 16.77 billion yuan, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 revenues of 5.32 billion, 4.99 billion, and 6.47 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 6.0%, and 6.0% [2]. Group 2: Capacity and Load Factor - In Q3 2025, the total Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 14.1% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional ASK growth rates of 11.4%, 27.5%, and -26.7% respectively [3]. - The total Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) also rose by 14.0% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional RPK growth rates of 11.6%, 26.3%, and -25.8% respectively [3]. - The overall passenger load factor for Q3 was 92.5%, with domestic, international, and regional load factors of 93.5%, 89.2%, and 91.8% respectively, showing slight year-on-year changes [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Structure - The unit revenue per RPK for Q3 was 0.412 yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year, while the unit revenue per ASK was 0.381 yuan, also down 7.1% year-on-year, indicating significant price declines in the industry [4]. - The unit cost per ASK for Q3 was 0.290 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.2%, benefiting from lower fuel prices and improved fleet utilization [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The demand for travel is expected to improve in Q4, with favorable oil and exchange rate factors potentially leading to significant performance improvements for airlines [5]. - The industry is anticipated to experience a contraction in supply, which may enhance pricing power and revenue for airlines, including Spring Airlines, which is expected to benefit from resilient pricing [5]. - Profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 2.409 billion, 3.054 billion, and 3.542 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 26.8%, and 16.0% [5].