How AMZN Stock Rises To $500?

Core Insights - Amazon's Q3 2025 earnings report revealed an earnings per share of $1.95, surpassing expectations of $1.57, marking a 25% surprise, with revenue reaching $180.2 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, exceeding the consensus forecast of $177.8 billion [3][5] - AWS revenue grew by 20% to $33 billion, the strongest growth since 2022, outperforming analyst predictions and indicating Amazon's competitive position in the AI sector [4][19] - The stock price surged 12% in after-hours trading following the earnings release, raising questions about the potential for AMZN stock to reach $500 or more [2][19] AWS Performance - AWS demonstrated significant growth, with a 20% increase in revenue, indicating its ability to compete effectively against Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud [4][9] - Amazon's investment in AI infrastructure, including Project Rainier, positions it to maintain this growth trajectory, with increased data center capacity and demand for AI computing [7][9][21] Advertising Growth - Amazon's advertising revenue reached $17.7 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase, contributing to its overall revenue growth [10][11] - The dual revenue stream strategy from e-commerce and advertising enhances Amazon's valuation metrics, similar to successful tech giants [11][12] Retail Segment - The online store generated $67.4 billion in Q3 2025, accounting for 37% of total revenue, providing consistent cash flow that supports AWS and advertising growth [12][19] Future Valuation Potential - For Amazon to reach a stock price of $500, it requires either earnings growth or multiple expansion, with current trading at approximately 35x trailing earnings [13][15] - Projections suggest earnings could double within 2-3 years, driven by AWS growth, advertising revenue, and AI efficiencies [14][20] - Amazon's guidance for Q4 2025 indicates a revenue range of $206-213 billion, supporting a pathway to $900 billion in annual revenue within three years [16][20] Competitive Landscape - Amazon's strategy of developing its own AI infrastructure, including hardware manufacturing, differentiates it from competitors like Microsoft and Google [8][21] - The company's substantial capital expenditures, nearly $100 billion in the past year, enhance its pricing power and margin growth [8][21]