奥飞数据(300738)：业绩超预期 重视公司可持续交付势能

Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance for Q3 2025, with revenue of 1.824 billion and a year-on-year growth of 15.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 145 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [1] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved revenue of 676 million, a year-on-year growth of 29.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.4% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 58 million, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 90.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 59.2% [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The revenue and net profit growth were primarily driven by timely data center deliveries and the transition of computing power services to more certain leasing contracts, allowing for steady expansion [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 35%, an increase of 9.4 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 gross margin reached 37.6%, up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The EBITDA for the first three quarters of 2025 is estimated at approximately 944 million, indicating a continuous improvement in operational quality and cash generation capability [1] Asset and Infrastructure Development - The balance sheet reflects strong mid-to-long-term delivery potential for data centers, with 3.161 billion in new fixed assets added in the first three quarters of 2025, laying the foundation for current and future revenue [2] - As of Q3 2025, construction in progress reached 1.782 billion, indicating ongoing data center deliveries and rolling development of mid-to-long-term resource reserves [2] - The company holds scarce assets in key regions, with strong operational performance driven by both stock optimization and new growth in South China, as well as strategic assets in North China [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the scarcity of existing resources and the transition to intelligent computing, with close ties to major clients like Baidu [2] - The company maintains its previous profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 208 million, 322 million, and 412 million for those years, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to an EV/EBITDA of 21, 16, and 13 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]