产业大脑|“十五五”产业机会前瞻：哪些赛道将催生新增长极？

Core Viewpoint - The recently released "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" lays the foundation for China's development from 2026 to 2030, highlighting the importance of a modern industrial system and the solidification of the real economy [1][2]. Modern Industrial System Framework - The plan emphasizes building a modern industrial system as a primary strategic task, focusing on the real economy's critical role in development [2]. - Four major tasks are outlined: optimizing traditional industries, nurturing emerging and future industries, promoting high-quality service sector development, and constructing a modern infrastructure system [2]. Key Areas of the 15th Five-Year Plan - Traditional industries such as mining, metallurgy, and chemicals will undergo quality upgrades, with an estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan [3]. - Emerging industries will be supported through innovation projects and large-scale applications of new technologies [3]. - Future industries like quantum technology, biotechnology, and nuclear fusion are highlighted for their potential to drive economic growth [9]. Four Major Emerging Pillar Industries - The plan identifies four strategic emerging industries: new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, which are expected to significantly contribute to the economy in the next five years [2][4]. New Energy - China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with wind and solar power capacities leading globally [4]. - The new energy sector is projected to maintain rapid growth, becoming a key economic driver under the "dual carbon" goals [4]. New Materials - The new materials industry supports the development of other emerging sectors and has made significant progress in areas like semiconductor materials and carbon fiber [5][6]. - The focus is on achieving breakthroughs in high-end materials to meet advanced manufacturing needs [6]. Aerospace - The plan emphasizes the role of commercial aerospace, with significant achievements in manned spaceflight and satellite technology [7]. - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, driven by national support and market demand [7]. Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with rapid development in the drone sector [8]. - This sector is anticipated to become a new growth engine, with applications in logistics and urban air transport [8]. Six Major Future Industries - The plan highlights future industries such as quantum technology, biotechnology, hydrogen energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G technology, which are expected to foster long-term growth [9]. Quantum Technology - Quantum technology is prioritized for its strategic value, with China leading in quantum communication and making strides in quantum computing [10]. - The sector is expected to transition from research to industrial application, forming new high-tech clusters [10]. Biotechnology - The biotechnology sector is experiencing rapid growth, with innovations in biobased materials and pharmaceuticals [11]. - It is projected to significantly expand by 2030, contributing to a green economy [11]. Hydrogen and Nuclear Fusion Energy - Hydrogen energy is recognized as a key clean energy source, with ongoing advancements in fuel cell technology [13]. - The nuclear fusion sector is still in the experimental stage but is expected to achieve breakthroughs during the 15th Five-Year Plan [13]. Brain-Computer Interfaces - Research in brain-computer interfaces is advancing, with applications in medical rehabilitation [14]. - The technology is expected to progress from experimental to clinical use, driving new technological developments [14]. Embodied Intelligence - The embodied intelligence sector is growing, with significant advancements in robotics and autonomous driving [15]. - This industry is expected to see rapid growth, becoming a crucial driver of manufacturing and digital economy development [15]. Sixth Generation Mobile Communication - 6G technology is anticipated to surpass 5G in speed and connectivity, with global competition underway [16]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is critical for establishing a competitive edge in 6G technology, which will support future digital economic innovations [16].