特朗普不是不想对中国征收100%关税，而是不敢对中国征收100%关税，因为特朗普明白对中国征收100%关税，中国必定第一时间对等反制

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of potential 100% tariffs on Chinese imports proposed by Trump, highlighting the significant risks and challenges for the U.S. economy while suggesting that such threats are more political posturing than actionable policy [1][3][10]. Trade Relations - The U.S.-China bilateral trade volume reached $575 billion in 2023, indicating that imposing 100% tariffs would severely disrupt U.S. supply chains [3]. - In 2023, China's exports to ASEAN surpassed those to the U.S. for the first time, reaching approximately $550 billion, showcasing China's diversification in trade relationships [7]. Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve reported that U.S. manufacturing jobs have only increased by less than 4% compared to pre-pandemic levels, raising concerns about the capacity to support a decoupled market [5]. - Previous tariffs have already cost American households an average of $1,300 annually, and a 100% tariff could exacerbate inflation significantly [5]. Strategic Positioning - China has been preparing for potential decoupling since 2020, with strategies such as rare earth export management and expanding trade with regions like the Middle East and Africa [3][7]. - China's domestic chip import volume has been declining since 2022, with a domestic replacement rate reaching 45%, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency [9]. Political Dynamics - Trump's rhetoric about tariffs appears to be more about electoral strategy than genuine intent, as the economic repercussions would likely harm his voter base [5][9]. - The article suggests that U.S. politicians are focused on electoral gains while Chinese companies prioritize survival and operational continuity [9].