平煤股份(601666)：焦煤景气度连累业绩 集团整合有望注入新活力

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with expectations for recovery in Q4 due to rising coal prices and potential asset integration opportunities [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.5% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 280 million yuan, down 86.3% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.81 million yuan, a decline of 96.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company's coal production for the first three quarters was 19.65 million tons, a decrease of 2.62% year-on-year [1]. - The average coal price was 723 yuan/ton, down 29.9% year-on-year, while the average cost was 578 yuan/ton, down 19.5% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit margin of 145 yuan/ton, a decline of 53.8% [1]. Q3 Performance - In Q3 2025, the company sold 6.44 million tons of coal, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales increasing by 10.4% [1]. - The average coal price in Q3 was 642 yuan/ton, down 30.1% year-on-year, and the average cost was 503 yuan/ton, down 17.4% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit margin of 139 yuan/ton, a decline of 55.2% [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability in Q4 2025, with the average price of coking coal in October at 1,695 yuan/ton, an increase of 133 yuan/ton from the previous month [2]. - The integration of Henan Energy Group and Pingmei Shenma Group is anticipated to enhance the company's growth prospects, with plans for asset injection from various subsidiaries [2]. - The company has acquired exploration rights for a coal mine in Xinjiang, with a resource volume of 1.668 billion tons, and has also purchased a 60% stake in the Sike Tree Coal Mine [2]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 358 million yuan, 1.197 billion yuan, and 1.955 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.14, 0.48, and 0.79 yuan [2].