Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The coal price continues to rise, but the coal sector is experiencing increased volatility. Despite the nearing end of concentrated coal replenishment by power plants, extreme weather and tight supply conditions suggest that coal prices are likely to rise in Q4 2025 and may recover year-on-year by 2026. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the coal sector, which has shown signs of bottom reversal, supported by strong short-term fundamentals, a global interest rate cut cycle, and resilient long-term demand [2][7][9] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 1.49%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.76 percentage points, ranking 22nd out of 32 industries. As of October 24, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 770 CNY/ton, up 22 CNY/ton week-on-week. The report anticipates that coal prices will likely remain stable and fluctuate in the short term due to tight supply and seasonal demand [6][15][19] Supply and Demand Situation - As of October 23, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 5.335 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.8%. The total coal inventory was 128.17 million tons, with a usable days count of 24.0 days, down 0.5 days from the previous week. The report indicates that coal supply remains tight due to production checks and seasonal demand [16][34][36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong defensive and offensive characteristics, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (H+A), China Power Investment Corporation, and Xinji Energy. It also suggests considering companies with high elasticity and growth potential, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Jinkong Coal Industry, as well as stable leaders like China Shenhua Energy [7][27][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the underlying logic for the recent rise in coal prices is due to supply constraints caused by increased safety inspections and production restrictions. It predicts that coal prices will continue to rise, especially if demand exceeds expectations, such as during a cold winter [2][7] - The report highlights that the domestic coal production has been declining year-on-year for three consecutive months from July to September, and this trend is expected to continue into October [2][11] - The report notes that the current low inventory levels compared to the previous year will reduce price suppression, allowing for greater price elasticity if demand increases [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates that the coal mining index increased by 1.46% but underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 3.24% [2][74] - It mentions that the price of thermal coal has stabilized after a rapid increase, with the current price at 770 RMB/ton, up by 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][34] - The report also states that the supply of coking coal remains tight, with prices reaching new highs due to strong demand from downstream industries [11][52] Key Areas of Analysis - For thermal coal, the report identifies ongoing supply disruptions and low port inventories as factors that make prices likely to rise [12][15] - In the coking coal segment, the report notes that prices have surged due to strong purchasing sentiment from downstream users, with some prices increasing by 30-100 RMB/ton since October [11][52] - The report highlights that the overall supply-demand balance in the coal industry remains stable, with expectations for further price increases as production constraints persist [2][11] Investment Strategy - The report recommends several key stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, all rated as "Buy" [10] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply situation and potential demand recovery in the coal market, particularly in relation to the real estate sector [11][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is experiencing significant supply tightening due to stricter safety regulations, with port prices for thermal coal reaching a new high of 770 RMB/ton as of October 24, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 22 RMB/ton [5][14] - The report anticipates that the ongoing policies to curb overproduction will continue to constrain supply, combined with low upstream inventories and high pit prices, which are expected to support coal prices in a strong upward trend as winter demand approaches [7][71] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - The supply of thermal coal is tightening, with port prices increasing; as of October 24, 2025, the price at northern ports is 770 RMB/ton, up 22 RMB/ton week-on-week [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased by 2.54 percentage points to 88.21% as of October 22, 2025, primarily due to stricter safety inspections and equipment maintenance [20][71] - Demand from coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends, with coastal power plant daily consumption decreasing by 27.3 thousand tons while inland consumption increased by 42.0 thousand tons [23][71] Coking Coal - Coking coal supply is tightening, with production capacity utilization dropping by 1.40 percentage points to 84.4% due to increased safety inspections and maintenance in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia [40][72] - The price of main coking coal at the port reached 1,760 RMB/ton as of October 24, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 50 RMB/ton [41][72] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 10.97 thousand tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [48][72] Coke - The supply of coke is tightening, with production rates at independent coking plants decreasing; the average profit per ton of coke is currently negative, indicating financial pressure on some enterprises [51][72] - The average daily iron output decreased by 1.04 million tons to 239.85 million tons, affecting demand for coke [59][72] - The report suggests that the coke market is expected to maintain a stable price trend, influenced by iron output and macroeconomic factors [72] Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report highlights several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, recommending a focus on their strong cash flow and high dividend yields [7][9] - The report emphasizes the investment value of coal stocks due to their high dividend yields and stable cash flows, particularly in the context of macroeconomic uncertainties [7][72]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have reached a significant threshold of 750 CNY per ton and are currently experiencing an upward trend, with expectations to reach a target price range of 800-860 CNY per ton [5][6] - The increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply contraction due to strict production checks and a surge in demand driven by heating needs during the northern cold wave [5] - Coking coal prices have also rebounded significantly, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1760 CNY per ton, up from 1230 CNY per ton in early July, marking a cumulative increase of 73.5% [5][6] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy-driven commodity, and its price recovery is expected to follow a four-step process: restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and moving towards the breakeven point for power plants [6][15] - The ideal target for coal price recovery is around 750 CNY per ton, with an anticipated upward movement towards the breakeven line of 860 CNY [6][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market supply and demand dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [6][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. The cyclical logic is supported by the current low prices of thermal and coking coal, which have room for rebound [7][16] - Four main lines for stock selection are proposed: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin Kong Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings, Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinji Energy, Guanghui Energy [7][16] Key Market Indicators - As of October 24, 2025, the price of Qin Port Q5500 thermal coal is 770 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.94% [19] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 14.82, and the PB ratio is 1.38, indicating the sector's valuation relative to the broader market [25][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The U.S. coal energy agenda is accelerating, with Republican lawmakers proposing a "Coal Week" to bolster coal production and keep aging coal-fired power plants operational. This aligns with federal efforts to revitalize the coal industry, including plans to open 13 million acres of federal land for coal leasing and allocate approximately $625 million for restarting or modernizing coal power units [2][3]. - Competitive coal mining rights auctions are being held in Alabama, Montana, and Utah, serving as indicators of industry demand. However, early auction activities show mixed interest, with some land receiving minimal bids [3]. - The report highlights several key companies for investment, including Yancoal Energy, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy, among others, emphasizing their performance resilience and potential for growth [6]. Summary by Sections Coal Prices - Coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle port coal priced at $110.65 per ton, down by $0.8 from the previous week, and European ARA port coal at $96 per ton, down by $1.77 [31]. Market Trends - The report notes a marginal increase in coal power demand, indicating a potential recovery in the coal sector as energy needs shift [34]. Key Companies - Recommended stocks include: - China Qinfa (Buy) with projected EPS of 0.20 in 2024 - Jiangxi Tungsten (Buy) with projected EPS of -0.28 in 2024 - China Shenhua (Buy) with projected EPS of 2.95 in 2024 - Jinneng Holding (Buy) with projected EPS of 1.68 in 2024 - Yancoal Energy (Buy) with projected EPS of 1.44 in 2024 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Views - The coal price continues to strengthen, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand dynamics, leading to an optimistic outlook for the future [1][8]. - The report highlights that the coal supply is expected to contract due to various factors, including increased safety inspections and government policies aimed at reducing overproduction [7][8]. - As winter approaches, the demand for electricity coal is anticipated to rise, further supporting coal prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,982.12 billion yuan [2]. - The report notes a significant increase in coal prices, with the port price for thermal coal exceeding 770 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic coal supply is expected to contract, with coal imports showing a downward trend [7]. - Recent data shows that coal consumption in 25 provinces has increased, with a daily consumption of 5.335 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.94% [8]. 3. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted as having strong performance and growth potential [5][13]. - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks like Yancoal Energy, Shanxi Coal International, and Jin控 Coal Industry, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][13]. 4. Price Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the price of thermal coal at the port has increased by 22 yuan/ton week-on-week [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines is reported at 5.479 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.78% [8]. 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal sector is entering a new upward cycle, with improving fundamentals and potential for price increases due to seasonal demand [8][9]. - The upcoming quarterly reports from major coal companies are expected to confirm the industry's recovery and upward trend in profitability [8].

行 业 研 究 煤炭 2025 年 10 月 25 日 迎峰度冬在即，煤价强势攀升 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 10 月 24 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 770 元/吨， 周环比+2.9%，内蒙产地价大涨，陕西、山西产地价小涨。截至 2025 年 10 月 24 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 547.9 万吨，环比-4.3 万吨，年同比-5.7%。本周电厂日耗大跌，电厂库存小跌，秦港库存微 涨，截至 10 月 20 日，动力煤库存指数为 188.7（-0.1）。非电方面， 甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 85.7%（-1.8pct）和 78.0%（-2.6pct），仍处 于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 10 月 24 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1760 元/吨，周环比+2.9%， 山西产地价格大涨，河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 10 月 24 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日均产量 76.1 万吨（-1.8 万吨），年同比-2.2%，532 家精煤库存 189.5 万吨（-15.9 万吨），年同比-31.5%；甘其毛都蒙煤 通关量 13.6 万吨（+3.4 万吨） ...

华源证券发布研报称，近期行业通过"查超产"的形式展开反内卷，此次供给端政策效果显著，在煤炭需 求端受宏观环境及新能源替代趋势影响的背景下，政策对供给端形成的拐点式收缩作用，或将是煤炭价 格企稳上行的关键性变量及长期积极因素。煤价方面，部分Q2已经降低履约价格的长协煤企业在Q3有 望保持价格平稳或略微回升，因此企业端长协煤业务的价格亦有望在Q3实现小幅回升。从炼焦煤企业 端盈利水平看，叠加喷吹煤以市场价交易，有望带动相关喷吹煤企业Q3业绩实现较好的环比提升。 华源证券主要观点如下： 炼焦煤市场价格环比上涨明显，2025年Q3京唐港主焦煤库提均价报1562元/吨，环比+18.8%；炼焦煤长 协价较为平稳，环比窄幅波动，不同主产地的主焦煤长协价涨跌互现。从炼焦煤企业端盈利水平看，主 焦煤企业由于大部分采用长协价销售主焦煤，2025Q3业绩环比或以持平微增为主，而长治地区喷吹煤 价格2025Q3环比上涨9.3%，叠加喷吹煤以市场价交易，有望带动相关喷吹煤企业Q3业绩实现较好的环 比提升。 产量环比微跌影响或有限 从整体产量看，上市煤企商品煤产量多数落在核定产能要求内，即使略有超产，比例也较小。然而，此 次"查超产"在 ...

平煤神马集团与河南能源集团重组利好存量债项。2025年9月25日，平煤股份接到控股 股东中国平煤神马控股集团有限公司的通知，河南省委、省政府决定对河南能源集团有限公 司和中国平煤神马控股集团有限公司实施战略重组。平煤神马集团和河南能源集团均为河南 省属煤炭企业，债务负担较重，考虑前期河南信用环境变化，双方债务接续较为依赖煤炭景 气度变化。2025年以来双方盈利均出现大幅下滑，存在潜在风险。双方重组后，预计平煤神 马集团将大幅提升资产体量和煤炭产销量，规模优势有所增强。考虑到河南能源集团债务负 担相对更重，重组后平煤神马资产负债率或有所上升，预计本次重组相对更利好河南能源相 关债项。但整体来说，新主体无论在煤炭行业还是河南省的地位均有显著提升，同时双方均 有较大规模的化工等非煤业务，在减少同业竞争的同时也可提升上下游业务协同，风险抵御 能力也有望改善，因此重组利好双方存量债，值得挖掘。 山西证券近日发布2025年三季度煤炭债复盘：三季度煤炭市场受益反内卷价格反弹，行 业盈利能力回升，前期市场悲观预期有所缓和，后续煤企获现能力改善的情况值得跟踪。但 考虑煤炭债平均久期不断创新高和基本面改善持续性存疑，市场对煤炭信 ...

进入四季度，冷锋过境，北方气温骤降，使这个被市场"忽视"的板块重新进入人们的视野。随着该板块 的供需格局逐步改善，叠加充沛的现金流与估值安全边际，它是否有望成为"高低切"资金的新落脚点？ 机构有最新研判。 国盛证券： 煤炭板块估值和利润向上弹性可期 未来煤炭补库需求有望进一步增长，叠加供给端难有增加，预计四季度煤价将维持偏强，板块股息率优 势明显，估值和利润向上弹性可期。长期看，预计2026—2028年煤炭供应增长将放缓，东南亚等地区煤 炭需求增长较为确定，预计海外煤价也将维持相对高景气。重点推荐盈利分红稳健的动力煤公司：中国 神华、陕西煤业、中煤能源、兖矿能源等；受益于需求预期向好、供应收缩的高弹性公司：山西焦煤、 潞安环能、淮北矿业、晋控煤业、首钢资源等。 太平洋证券： 煤炭等为代表的板块或重新获得市场关注 预计以煤炭、银行、养殖等为代表的板块强势不会只是一日行情，未来一个季度这些板块或将重新获得 市场的关注。而科技过高的吸筹率和波动率将很难获得超额收益，仍在低位的煤炭、银行、光伏、养 殖、核电预计在四季度会有不错的表现。市场会抚平每一处"洼地"，买在无人问津处、卖在人声鼎沸时 是获得超额收益的必要条件。 ...