小摩看涨锂价格：不到每吨1200美元，西方国家多数矿产商不会重启生产

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the demand for energy storage will lead to a lithium shortage, resulting in both short-term and long-term price increases Group 1: Supply and Demand Assessment - The production of materials used in energy storage batteries is expected to increase by 50% and 43% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, creating a supply-demand gap [1] - Electric vehicle demand is projected to grow by 3% to 5% according to global team research [1] - The supply side remains uncertain, particularly regarding the restart of CATL's mines, which is crucial under the new demand forecast [1] - Lithium spodumene spot prices have rebounded from approximately $800 per ton to $950 per ton, highlighting short-term supply tightness [1] Group 2: Long-term Price Expectations - Long-term lithium prices should be higher due to sustained growth in energy storage battery demand and market acceptance of higher prices [2] - Mining companies have indicated that they will not consider restarting idle capacity unless prices stabilize between $1,200 and $1,500 per ton [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The development of energy storage technology has reversed the long-term oversupply expectations for lithium, with a significant increase in energy storage battery shipments expected [3] - Energy storage technology is projected to account for 30% of lithium market demand by 2026 and 36% by 2030, with total global lithium demand reaching 2.8 million tons by 2030 [3] Group 4: Supply Adjustments - Supply adjustments are lagging behind demand growth, with unclear timelines for the restart of CATL's nine mines, which have become catalysts for price increases during their downtime [4] - Supply is expected to increase by about 2% to 3% starting in 2027 as higher price expectations stimulate more mining companies to expand capacity [4] Group 5: Price Forecast Adjustments - Short-term price forecasts for lithium spodumene have been raised from $800 per ton to $1,100 to $1,200 per ton, reflecting current market supply-demand imbalances [5] - Long-term price expectations have been adjusted upwards to $1,300 per ton, as previous estimates were deemed too conservative given the surge in energy storage system demand [6] Group 6: Reasons for Price Adjustments - Higher long-term demand necessitates elevated prices to incentivize the production of new and idle mines, alongside rising capital expenditures and operational costs [7] - The valuation trends in the lithium market have increased, making previous low-price forecasts unsuitable for the current demand growth [8] - Mining companies in countries like Australia have stated that prices must exceed $1,200 per ton to consider restarting production at certain mines [9]