华鲁恒升(600426)：二元酸及尿素出口贡献增量 荆州TDI项目稳步推进

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.552 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.374 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.789 billion yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.805 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a gross margin of 19.1% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s revenue for Q3 2025 was 7.789 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5% and a net profit of 0.805 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year [1] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 23.552 billion yuan, reflecting a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 2.374 billion yuan, a decline of 22% year-on-year [1] Segment Performance - The company’s fertilizer, organic amine, acetic acid, and new materials segments saw sales volume increases of 40%, 4%, 9%, and 14% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Sales prices for various products decreased significantly, with urea down 13%, acetic acid down 3%, and other products experiencing similar declines [1] - The price spread for several products, including urea and acetic acid, showed a decline, with the overall price spread dropping from 14.2% at the end of Q2 to 10.6% at the end of Q3 [1] Project Development - The TDI project in Jingzhou is progressing steadily, with an environmental impact report accepted for a 300,000 tons/year TDI project [2] - The project includes the construction of several facilities with a total investment of approximately 548.787 million yuan, including 39 million yuan for environmental protection [2] - The construction period is set for 24 months, from January 2026 to December 2027, positioning the company to capture market share amid industry consolidation [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.97 billion yuan, 4.46 billion yuan, and 5.23 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3]