中美会晤释放强信号！大豆、豆粕价格要变天？一文看懂核心逻辑｜大宗风云

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, reaching a 15-month high, driven by expectations of China purchasing U.S. soybeans [2][3] - On October 30, U.S. soybean futures peaked at $11.14 per bushel, closing at $11.09 on October 31, indicating strong market activity [2] - The recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump is seen as a positive signal for U.S.-China relations, potentially boosting global soybean trade [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that China may agree to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, with expectations of reserve procurement actions in November and December [4][5] - The U.S. soybean production for the current year is projected at 117 million tons, a 1.6% decrease year-on-year, due to reduced planting area [6][7] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by high livestock inventory, with significant increases in feed production observed [6][7] Group 3 - The market is divided on the future of soybean prices, with some expecting a bull market while others predict downward pressure on domestic soybean and meal prices if imports increase [5][8] - The global soybean supply remains ample, with South American production expected to exert pressure on U.S. soybean prices [8][9] - The upcoming months will be critical for determining the price dynamics of soybean and meal futures, particularly in relation to U.S.-China procurement agreements and South American weather conditions [8][9]