美联储降息25基点，利率降至3.75%-4.00%，年底欠款缩表

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate from over 4% to 3.75% and announced a halt to balance sheet reduction in December, indicating a pause in monetary tightening [1] - The voting outcome was 10 to 2, with dissenting votes reflecting differing views on the pace of rate cuts, highlighting a lack of consensus within the committee [3] - Inflation remains a concern, with the CPI reported at 3%, above the 2% target, while employment data shows low unemployment but a slowdown in hiring, indicating accumulated risks rather than immediate threats [3] Group 2 - The decision to stop balance sheet reduction means that maturing securities will be redirected to short-term notes, maintaining a moderate level of liquidity in the market [5] - Rate cuts can stimulate credit expansion and consumer spending, but their effectiveness is conditional on business and consumer confidence, which is currently cautious [5] - Political factors, such as the government shutdown affecting data availability, create uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, potentially increasing public and market dissatisfaction [7] Group 3 - Future economic data will be crucial; weaker data may lead to expectations of further rate cuts, while rising inflation could limit the scope for cuts [9] - The Federal Reserve's current stance reflects a strategic holding of options rather than a definitive policy direction, indicating ongoing market and policy interactions [10]