重大！美元暴跌10%！美联储降息，国际化新契机至！

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve led to a significant drop in the US dollar, with a 10% decline in a single day, marking the worst performance in five years. This situation presents unique investment opportunities, particularly for the Chinese yuan, which has gained strength amidst the dollar's weakness [4]. Market Reactions - Prior to the rate cut, over 500,000 put options on the dollar were already in place, indicating a strong market expectation for a dollar decline. Following the Fed's decision, the dollar index fell below 102, prompting market makers to sell off dollar assets aggressively, resulting in a $20 billion sell-off in one day [3]. - The borrowing cost of the dollar has sharply decreased, with the 3-month LIBOR/OIS spread narrowing to 15 basis points. This has led to a rush among companies and banks to liquidate their dollar holdings for cash [5]. Currency Dynamics - The US Treasury's reduced bond issuance in October, down 15% from September, has contributed to the dollar's decline, as the market lacks a strong "capital-absorbing" mechanism [5]. - The Chinese yuan has surged to 6.82 against the dollar, with cross-border payment volumes reaching trillion-level transactions in a single day, indicating a shift in currency usage [4]. Trade and Investment Trends - The volume of cross-border RMB settlements is projected to reach 64.1 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%. In border trade with countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, RMB settlements now account for over 50% [9]. - The global foreign exchange reserve share of the RMB has risen to 2.2%, with significant purchases of RMB assets by central banks in Brazil and India, reflecting growing international interest [9]. Future Outlook - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the US fiscal deficit will soar to $1.8 trillion by 2026, which could lead to increased issuance of US Treasury bonds and a potential rebound in dollar yields [7]. - The RMB's cross-border settlement share could exceed 20% if the Fed cuts rates three more times by 2026, establishing RMB settlements as a new norm in energy and bulk trade [14].