美联储内部分歧加剧：三官员担心通胀、公开反对本周降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates faces significant opposition from several officials, indicating that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed [1][2][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed their preference to maintain current interest rates, emphasizing the need for clear evidence of inflation decline or labor market cooling before supporting further cuts [1][3]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid opposed the recent rate cut, citing a balanced labor market and persistent inflation concerns [1][3]. - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials highlights a contentious debate on monetary policy direction leading up to the December meeting [1][2][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the statements from hawkish officials, market expectations for a December rate cut significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from nearly 92% to below 69% [7]. - The futures market reflects a shift in sentiment regarding the likelihood of further rate cuts, indicating increased uncertainty among investors [7]. Group 3: Neutral Rate Assessment - Disagreements over the assessment of the neutral interest rate, which neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth, have become a focal point of the debate among Fed officials [4][5]. - Current estimates of the neutral rate range from slightly above 2.5% to slightly below 4%, contributing to differing views on the necessity of further rate cuts [4][5]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed announced it will cease its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) on December 1, which has been ongoing for three years, in response to rising short-term interest rates [10]. - Logan supports this decision, believing it will alleviate financing pressures, while also suggesting that the Fed may need to purchase assets if recent increases in repo rates are not temporary [10].