TKGF(SH:601233) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-01 00:27Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to the positive outlook for the long filament market and the anticipated reversal in PTA profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 53.83% [1] - For Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.452 billion yuan, which includes investment income from joint ventures and associates of 0.325 billion yuan and asset disposal gains of 0.279 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 872.09% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.88% [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, projecting net profits of 2.041 billion yuan (down 5.00%), 3.648 billion yuan, and 4.274 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.85 (down 0.21), 1.52, and 1.78 yuan [1] Group 2: Sales and Pricing - In Q3 2025, the company's polyester filament sales totaled 3.19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.5% [2] - The sales breakdown for Q3 2025 included POY at 2.36 million tons (73.9%), FDY at 0.53 million tons (16.5%), and DTY at 0.30 million tons (9.5%) [2] - The average price spread for POY in Q3 2025 was 1,171 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to Q2 [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The domestic polyester filament industry is expected to see a slowdown in new capacity growth, with steady demand leading to an increase in profitability [3] - The PTA industry is anticipated to have limited new capacity in the future, and the high concentration of the industry will provide leading companies with pricing power [3] - As of late October 2025, PTA price spreads have dropped to below 100 yuan, resulting in deep losses across the industry, but production companies are expected to have pricing power [3]