中美会晤释放强信号！大豆、豆粕价格要变天？一文看懂核心逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. soybean futures prices is attributed to expectations of China purchasing U.S. soybeans, marking a significant shift after a period of zero imports from the U.S. [3][5] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - On October 30, U.S. soybean futures reached a peak of $11.14 per bushel, the highest in 15 months, closing at $11.09 on October 31 [3]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for China to resume soybean purchases from the U.S. is a key driver behind the price increase [5][6]. - Following a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump, there is optimism regarding the stabilization of U.S.-China relations, which could positively impact global soybean trade [5]. Group 2: Chinese Purchasing Behavior - There is speculation that China may agree to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, with potential procurement actions expected in November and December [6]. - The Chinese market's demand for soybeans is influenced by domestic supply conditions, with analysts noting that increased imports could stabilize domestic soybean supply [6][10]. - The Chinese soybean purchasing strategy may involve a mix of U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, depending on price competitiveness [7]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean and Meal Demand - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by high inventory levels in the livestock sector [8][10]. - Recent data indicates that China's industrial feed production has shown significant year-on-year growth, reflecting robust demand for soybean meal [8]. - As of October 24, major oil mills in China reported a decrease in soybean inventory and an increase in soybean meal inventory, indicating shifting market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Price Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts express mixed views on the future of soybean prices, with some predicting a bullish trend while others caution against potential downward pressure if imports increase [6][11]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has hindered the release of updated agricultural reports, contributing to uncertainty in the market [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations that any recovery in U.S. soybean prices may be limited by global supply conditions, particularly from South America [11][12].