西麦食品(002956)：Q3业绩表现亮眼 布局大健康成长可期

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.696 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.34%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million yuan, up 21.90% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.92%, and a net profit of 51 million yuan, growing by 21.00% [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - Q3 revenue reached a new high, with a year-on-year growth of 18.92% to 547 million yuan, indicating strong competitive positioning in the industry [2] - All core product categories experienced double-digit growth in Q3, with compound oats benefiting from channel expansion and product innovation, outpacing overall company growth [2] - The offline channel network continues to expand, particularly in East China, maintaining the company's leading sales position in the industry [2] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - Q3 gross margin improved by 0.93 percentage points to 43.75%, primarily due to a decline in core raw material costs [3] - Q3 selling expense ratio decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 27.11%, attributed to effective cost control during the off-season [3] - Despite a reduction in government subsidies impacting profits, the company’s net profit margin increased by 0.14 percentage points to 9.31% in Q3, with a significant rise in operating-related net profit [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth into Q4, driven by the upcoming Spring Festival season, increased volume of compound oats, and expansion in snack channels [3] - Long-term prospects are positive, with expectations for continued scale expansion benefiting from brand, channel, and supply chain advantages in the health food sector [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.247 billion, 2.674 billion, and 3.102 billion yuan, respectively, and revised EPS estimates to 0.77, 0.98, and 1.17 yuan [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 is projected at 28 times, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the latest performance report [4]