2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-11-01 01:33Core Viewpoint - The market is expressing doubts about the future growth of leading optical module companies, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, despite their impressive financial performance in Q3 2025, leading to significant stock price declines [1][3][12]. Financial Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang reported a revenue of 25.005 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 44.43%, and a net profit of 7.132 billion yuan, up 90.05% [5]. - Xinyi Sheng achieved a revenue of 16.505 billion yuan, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 221.70%, with a net profit of 6.327 billion yuan, increasing by 284.37% [5]. - In Q3 alone, Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue was 10.216 billion yuan with a gross margin of 43%, while Xinyi Sheng's revenue was 6.068 billion yuan, showing a slight decline from the previous quarter [5][6]. Growth Concerns - Despite high growth rates, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of profits and the quality of growth, particularly for Xinyi Sheng, which experienced a revenue decline in Q3 due to changes in product shipment schedules [3][5]. - Both companies are navigating a transition period between the high demand for 800G products and the accelerated market penetration of 1.6T products, which is expected to drive future growth [8]. Market Dynamics - The optical module industry is increasingly focusing on silicon photonics technology, which is becoming a mainstream solution due to its cost advantages and high integration [8]. - Zhongji Xuchuang's construction projects have surged from 5.253 million yuan at the beginning of the year to 980 million yuan, indicating a significant investment in capacity expansion to meet demand [9]. Inventory and Operational Pressure - Both companies are facing operational pressures due to inventory increases, with Zhongji Xuchuang's inventory rising by 52.64% and Xinyi Sheng's by 59.79% since the beginning of the year [10]. - Xinyi Sheng's inventory increased by approximately 700 million yuan in Q3 despite a revenue decline, raising questions about inventory management strategies [10]. Taxation and Valuation Challenges - Zhongji Xuchuang's effective tax rate increased to 15.8% in Q3 due to new tax regulations affecting its Southeast Asian operations, which may impact future tax burdens [11]. - Both companies are experiencing valuation pressures, with Zhongji Xuchuang's market capitalization at 522.9 billion yuan and a dynamic P/E ratio of 55.27, while Xinyi Sheng's market cap is 342.2 billion yuan with a P/E ratio of 40.57 [12][13]. Investor Sentiment - The market's reaction to the strong earnings reports reflects a growing fatigue regarding the high growth narrative of these companies, as investors become more sensitive to high valuations and potential risks [13].