重庆啤酒(600132):结构升级仍在持续 阶段投入增加及税率提升等因素扰动利润表现

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.06 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, showing no growth year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.8% to 1.24 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.22 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 12.7% to 380 million yuan [1] Revenue Analysis - Q3 2025 revenue growth was driven by product structure upgrades, despite a slight decline in sales volume due to a weak external consumption environment [1] - The revenue breakdown by product tier in Q3 2025 showed high-end beer revenue increased by 3.7%, while mainstream and economy beer revenues decreased by 3.2% and 10.5%, respectively [1] - Regional performance in Q3 2025 indicated that the Northwest and South regions outperformed others, with revenue growth of 3.3% and 3.7%, while the Central region saw a decline of 3.2% [1] Cost and Profitability - The company experienced a decrease in unit cost by 2.3% in Q3 2025, contributing to a gross margin increase of 1.7 percentage points to 50.9% [2] - Sales expenses increased by 13.7% year-on-year, attributed to a temporary rise in brand promotion costs, leading to a sales expense ratio increase of 1.9 percentage points [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 8.9%, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items fell by 1.2 percentage points to 8.7% [3] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 14.68 billion yuan, 14.86 billion yuan, and 15.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.3%, 1.2%, and 1.8% [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are projected at 1.17 billion yuan, 1.20 billion yuan, and 1.24 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.6%, 2.7%, and 3.9% [3]