Baosteel(SH:600019) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-01 02:25Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. reported a significant improvement in net profit for Q3 2025, driven by a smaller decline in steel prices compared to raw material costs, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for the industry leader [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 81.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.83% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.28% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.081 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 130.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.00% - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 232.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.29%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.959 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.32% [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - The decline in steel prices was less than that of iron ore and coking coal, with the steel price index, iron ore index, and coking coal futures settlement prices decreasing by 1.7%, 5.4%, and 21.6% year-on-year, respectively - This resulted in a year-on-year increase in gross profit margin of 3.5 percentage points to 7.8% for Q3 2025 - The expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 3.0%, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points [1] Product and Market Development - The company maintained its position as the industry leader, advancing its AI transformation strategy and enhancing manufacturing capabilities - Product optimization efforts led to a 13.9% year-on-year increase in the sales volume of differentiated products, totaling 25.689 million tons in the first three quarters [2] - The company actively expanded its overseas market, with export orders reaching 5.169 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 9.362 billion yuan, 12.257 billion yuan, and 14.291 billion yuan, respectively - Corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.43 yuan, 0.56 yuan, and 0.66 yuan for the same years - The target price is set at 8.15 yuan based on a historical average PB of 0.84, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]