信达宏观：四季度增量刺激政策出台概率较低

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the likelihood of introducing additional stimulus policies in Q4 this year is low, primarily due to manageable growth pressures and positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations [1] - The manufacturing sector's recovery is weaker than market expectations, with a notable decline in manufacturing activity in October, primarily driven by production issues [1] - The drop in manufacturing activity is attributed to two main pressures: the impact of the October holiday leading to fewer working days and adjustments in production capacity by some companies following the implementation of anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - In contrast to the manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing sector saw a rebound in October, mainly supported by a recovery in the service industry [2] - The construction industry, while still in a contraction phase, shows signs of stabilization, with core constraints to recovery stemming from weakness in real estate-related sectors [2] - There is a trend of increased infrastructure investment activities, and if the pace of funding for infrastructure projects accelerates, it could provide stronger support for the recovery of the construction industry [2]