国能日新(301162)：费用率持续下降 Q4收入增速与毛利率均有望提升

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 500 million for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 37.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75.43 million, up 41.8% year-over-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue grew by 27.1% to 179 million, while net profit increased by 59.1% to 29.46 million, indicating strong performance despite a slowdown in revenue growth [1] - The company expects a rebound in revenue growth and gross margin in Q4 2025, driven by concentrated construction activities in the photovoltaic sector [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 60.4%, slightly lower than the 61.4% in H1 2025, but is expected to improve as the proportion of power forecasting and electricity trading businesses increases [1] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with cash received from sales and services increasing by 69.4% year-over-year, leading to a positive cash flow of 50.38 million [2] Cost Management - The company has effectively managed costs, with sales, management, and R&D expenses growing at rates lower than revenue growth, resulting in a decrease in the combined expense ratio from 51.3% to 42.1% [2] - Future expense growth may accelerate due to new business developments, but the overall trend of decreasing expense ratios is expected to continue [2] Market Opportunities - Continuous supportive policies from local governments are enhancing the power forecasting market for distributed photovoltaic systems, creating growth opportunities for the company [2] - The acceleration of the electricity spot market and the proliferation of virtual power plants are expected to provide a turning point for the company's electricity trading and virtual power plant businesses [2] Profit Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 152 million, 252 million, and 322 million respectively, maintaining a target valuation of 62.00 yuan based on a 54x PE ratio for 2025 [3]