Berkshire Hathaway earnings preview, & how long can Big Tech keep powering markets?

Market Overview - Major stock indices are experiencing gains, with the Dow up approximately 150 points, S&P 500 increasing by about 0.6%, and NASDAQ rising by around 1% [1][2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is noted at 4.1%, while Bitcoin has rebounded over 2% [3] Amazon's Performance - Amazon's stock surged over 10% following a strong quarterly report, driven by significant growth in its cloud business, AWS, amid concerns about market share [5][6] - AWS infrastructure has expanded with 3.8 gigawatts built over the past year to meet AI demand, indicating strong future growth potential [7][8] - North American retail business saw an 11% increase, contributing to improved margins and profitability [9][10] AI and E-commerce Innovations - Amazon's AI shopping assistant, Rufus, is projected to create an incremental opportunity of over $10 billion, enhancing consumer engagement and conversion rates [11][14] - The shift towards agentic commerce is expected to streamline consumer purchasing behavior, further benefiting Amazon's market position [12][13] Earnings Season Insights - Approximately 87% of stocks have exceeded earnings expectations, with 83% surpassing revenue estimates, marking a strong earnings season [21] - The overall earnings growth for the S&P 500 is around 9.3%, with margins at 12.8%, above historical averages [21] Chevron's Financial Results - Chevron reported a 21% increase in production, aided by the acquisition of Hess, leading to record cash flow and earnings [48][49] - The company emphasizes long-term investments and capital discipline, with 85% of its business focused on upstream operations [53][54] Regulatory and Market Trends - Coinbase has benefited from regulatory clarity, driving growth through product innovation and partnerships, positioning itself as a comprehensive trading and payments platform [96][100] - The potential introduction of a base token by Coinbase could represent a significant market opportunity, estimated between $12 billion to $34 billion [103] Berkshire Hathaway's Challenges - Berkshire Hathaway faces declining revenues and margins across several businesses, including Geico and its railroad operations, due to increased claims and reduced pricing power [110][114] - The phase-out of tax credits associated with alternative energy investments may impact future earnings and valuations [116][117]