“美联储内部存在严重分歧”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points has created uncertainty regarding future policy directions, particularly with the December rate cut not being a "foregone conclusion" as indicated by Chairman Powell [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve's policy-making committee voted 10 to 2 to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first instance of "dual opposition" since 2019 [2]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid expressed concerns about the impact of rate cuts on inflation and the labor market, suggesting that current economic growth remains robust [2]. Divergence Among Officials - Several regional Fed presidents, including Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hammack, voiced opposition to the rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks and the need for more evidence of economic downturns before further easing [3][4]. - The internal divisions within the Fed regarding the direction of monetary policy have been highlighted, with some officials advocating for maintaining current rates unless significant economic changes occur [4]. Market Expectations - Financial markets have adjusted their expectations for a December rate cut, with the probability dropping to 60% from over 95% earlier in the week, indicating a shift in sentiment [5]. - Analysts from various financial institutions remain divided on the likelihood of a December rate cut, with some economists predicting a pause in rate reductions while others maintain that a cut is still possible depending on forthcoming economic data [6][7]. Economic Outlook - The current economic landscape is characterized by uncertainty due to the government shutdown and lack of official economic data, complicating assessments of the economic situation [6]. - Despite some signs of a slowing job market, consumer spending and income growth remain resilient, suggesting that the risk of recession in the next 12 months is low [6].