俄专家“石油威胁论”背后：中俄能源博弈的三大战略困境与出路

Core Viewpoint - The statement by Russian expert Markov regarding the potential cessation of oil supplies by 2025 highlights the underlying tensions in Sino-Russian energy cooperation, revealing a complex interplay of dependence and strategic maneuvering [1][2]. Group 1: Russian Oil Supply Challenges - Markov's prediction of a "supply cut" reflects Russia's strategic anxiety under Western sanctions, indicating a reliance on China while simultaneously seeking to maintain pricing power [2]. - The oil trade between China and Russia faces significant obstacles, with 70% of the trade dependent on maritime transport, leading to a shortage of oil tankers [5]. - The ongoing conflict has resulted in a 12% decline in oil extraction rates in Russia due to labor loss and Western technological restrictions [5]. Group 2: China's Position and Strategic Leverage - China's electric vehicle ownership surpassing 30 million has led to a 2.61% year-on-year decrease in gasoline consumption, enhancing its bargaining power in energy negotiations [7]. - The diversification of supply channels from the Middle East and Africa provides China with a safety net, reducing reliance on any single source [7]. - China's strategic balance in the US-Russia rivalry adds geopolitical leverage to its energy cooperation with Russia [7]. Group 3: Future Cooperation Scenarios - A short-term "transport for discounts" model may emerge, where China leases oil tankers in exchange for lower oil prices [7]. - In the medium term, Russia may be compelled to accept non-monetary payments, such as using oil to barter for Chinese infrastructure projects [7]. - The potential return of Trump to power could accelerate the development of a "de-dollarized energy system" between China and Russia [7].