金价要重现15年历史了？大家注意，下周，金价可能重现15年历史

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are reminiscent of the 2015 market dynamics, with significant volatility and a potential for further declines due to market sentiment and Federal Reserve policies [3][5][6]. Market Trends - Gold prices recently experienced a drop from $3950 to $3880 following a statement from the Federal Reserve, which reduced market expectations for future rate cuts [3]. - The price movements show a pattern similar to 2015, with daily fluctuations of over $50 becoming common [5][14]. Investor Behavior - There is an increase in gold selling, with reports indicating a 30% rise in individuals selling gold, reflecting a fear of repeating past losses [6][13]. - Younger investors are increasingly purchasing gold, with their share of investment rising to 35%, contrasting with the past trend of declining interest during price drops [11][16]. Institutional Perspectives - Major financial institutions are divided on gold price forecasts, with some predicting further declines while others anticipate a rebound due to strong demand from central banks [6][13]. - The current central bank gold purchases have significantly increased compared to 2015, providing a buffer for gold prices [8][13]. Technical Analysis - Current support levels for gold are clearer than in 2015, with a defined range between $3850 and $3880 [8]. - Historical data suggests that after significant price drops, there is a high probability of subsequent rebounds, indicating potential trading opportunities [16][18]. Economic Context - The inflation environment is notably different from 2015, with current core PCE inflation above 3%, which may enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [18]. - The gold-to-oil ratio has reached an extreme level, indicating a significant premium for gold compared to oil, which was not the case in 2015 [16].