降息才开始就“熄火”?政府停摆美联储两眼一黑，鲍威尔罕见认怂

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, leading to significant market volatility and uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts [1][3][16]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29, but the decision was narrowly passed with a 10-2 vote, indicating internal divisions among board members [1][3]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with one member advocating for no rate change and another suggesting a 50 basis point cut, which is uncommon in recent decision-making [3][16]. - The lack of timely economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions, as key indicators like non-farm payrolls and inflation data are unavailable [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - September's CPI inflation data showed slightly lower-than-expected inflation pressures, with declines in housing services inflation and stable non-housing services inflation, which bolstered the Fed's confidence in controlling inflation [5][12]. - The job market is undergoing structural changes, influenced by immigration policies and AI, making traditional employment data harder to interpret [5][7]. - The Fed announced it would stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, citing tightening liquidity in the money market and declining bank reserves, which may help alleviate liquidity pressures [8][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - Following the Fed's announcement, expectations for a December rate cut have significantly cooled, with traders reassessing the Fed's policy path amid ongoing data shortages [10][12]. - The decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 4.28% to 3.97% since late August reflects the impact of the rate cut cycle, although historical trends suggest that the pace of decline may slow down [12][14]. - The stock market, particularly technology and interest-sensitive sectors, has been supported by the rate cut, while the dollar index may stabilize as economic conditions improve [14][16]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged due to declining risk-free interest rates, government shutdown uncertainties, and global de-dollarization trends, with historical patterns suggesting a potential continuation of the current bull market [14][16].