今明两年买房，5年后会亏得一塌糊涂？曹德旺马光远观点一致

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a notable increase in the number of cities witnessing falling property prices, contrasting sharply with previous trends of rising prices during peak seasons [2][4]. Market Dynamics - As of August this year, only 29 out of 100 key cities in the country saw an increase in new home prices, while 69 cities experienced price declines. In the secondary housing market, only 23 cities maintained rising prices, with 74 cities reporting price drops [2]. - Local governments are attempting to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as relaxing purchase restrictions, lowering down payment ratios, and reducing mortgage rates, but these efforts have had limited success [4]. Future Outlook - The future of the real estate market is expected to show a divergent pattern, with core locations in first and second-tier cities potentially still having room for price increases due to their scarcity and quality resources. In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities may face significant price declines [8]. - Notable figures like Cao Dewang and independent economist Ma Guangyuan predict that the value of real estate will revert to its fundamental nature, suggesting that the market will not see a rebound and that buyers in both high-tier and lower-tier cities may face price adjustment risks [10][11]. Factors Influencing the Market - A rapid decline in rigid housing demand is observed, as people's expectations for future income have decreased, leading many families to abandon their home-buying plans. Central bank surveys indicate a shift towards saving rather than investing or consuming [12]. - The exit of speculative investors from the market is contributing to a shrinking demand for real estate, as the previous profit-driven buying behavior is no longer sustainable in a declining price environment [12]. - The potential introduction of property taxes within the next five years is anticipated to increase holding costs and suppress speculative behavior, further impacting property values [12]. - The acceleration of affordable housing construction is expected to diversify the real estate market, with various housing options coexisting, thereby redistributing demand away from traditional commodity housing [13].