存储芯片，开启“黄金时代”

Core Insights - The storage industry is expected to enter a "super cycle" driven by AI, with the global storage market projected to reach $300 billion by 2027, marking the beginning of a new industrial cycle for storage chips [1][2]. Industry Overview - The storage chip sector has shown a cyclical pattern over the past 13 years, with cycles occurring every 3-4 years. Currently, it is in the fourth cycle, which is significantly stronger than other semiconductor segments [2]. - Previous cycles were influenced by various factors: the 2012-2015 cycle was driven by smartphone upgrades; the 2016-2019 cycle benefited from 3D NAND capacity shifts and DDR4 iterations; and the 2020-2023 cycle saw demand surge due to remote work and data centers, followed by a decline due to oversupply [2]. Market Dynamics - The current cycle is characterized by a shift in demand from consumer to enterprise-level AI capital expenditures, which is expected to drive significant growth in markets for HBM, DDR4/DDR5, and enterprise SSDs [2]. - Major players like Samsung and SK Hynix are engaged in a competitive battle, with both companies reporting unprecedented growth in their earnings [2]. Financial Performance - Samsung's preliminary Q3 report indicated an operating profit of 12.1 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 31.81% and a quarter-on-quarter surge of 158.55%, marking the highest profit since Q2 2022 [3]. - SK Hynix reported an operating profit of 11.38 trillion KRW in Q3, a 62% year-on-year increase, with revenue reaching 24.45 trillion KRW, up 39% year-on-year [3]. Product Insights - HBM products are identified as the core growth driver, with the introduction of 12-layer HBM3E and server DDR5 products significantly contributing to revenue growth and pushing gross margins to 57% [4]. - Both Samsung and SK Hynix have notified clients of a price increase of approximately 30% for DRAM and NAND Flash products for Q4 2025 [4]. Competitive Landscape - SK Hynix has recently surpassed Samsung in the DRAM market, achieving a market share of 36.9% in Q1 2025, marking a significant shift in the competitive landscape [5][6]. - In Q2 2025, SK Hynix's market share increased to 39.5%, while Samsung's share fell to 33.3%, widening the gap between the two companies [7]. Future Projections - Analysts expect SK Hynix to maintain strong performance in Q4, driven by high AI storage demand and successful negotiations for HBM4 supply [11]. - SK Hynix has locked in customer demand for all DRAM and NAND capacity for 2026, anticipating a more than 20% year-on-year increase in DRAM shipments [12]. Strategic Partnerships - Samsung and SK Hynix have partnered with OpenAI for the Stargate project, a $500 billion data center initiative aimed at supporting AI infrastructure [21][22]. - The project will involve the construction of two data centers in South Korea, with an initial capacity of 20 MW, and aims to significantly increase memory chip production [22]. Technological Advancements - Both companies are investing in High NA EUV technology, which is crucial for the next generation of semiconductor manufacturing, enhancing production efficiency and performance [14][15]. - SK Hynix has successfully developed the world's first sixth-generation 10nm-class 1c process DDR5 DRAM, indicating advancements in manufacturing technology [16].