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Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility, reflecting a fierce battle among market participants, driven by supply constraints and macroeconomic concerns [1][3]. Supply Dynamics - After reaching a record high of $11,200 per ton, copper prices fell to $11,050 per ton, marking a 1.19% decline in one day, highlighting the current market's division between supply tightness and demand concerns [3]. - The global copper supply is under pressure, particularly due to the Grasberg copper mine incident in Indonesia, which is expected to reduce supply by 500,000 tons, accounting for 2% of global production [3][4]. - Global visible copper inventories are at historically low levels, with LME copper stocks dropping below 140,000 tons, increasing the risk of short squeezes for short sellers [4]. Demand Trends - Structural expansion in demand is evident, with AI computing and electric vehicles significantly increasing copper consumption, outpacing traditional uses [6][9]. - The high copper prices are beginning to suppress demand, as downstream industries show caution in their purchasing decisions, particularly in the cable manufacturing sector [7][10]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently divided, with bullish arguments focusing on ongoing supply constraints and structural changes in demand, while bearish sentiments are driven by fears of economic slowdown and high prices dampening demand [9][10]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that concerns over supply crises may be overstated, predicting copper prices will hover between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton, with limited potential for sustained breakthroughs above this range [6][10]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that while short-term fluctuations will continue, the long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive due to persistent supply disruptions and strong demand from new energy sectors [10][12]. - The copper market is expected to face a tightening supply situation by 2026, with significant implications for pricing and investment strategies [10][12]. - Key signals to watch include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and the global copper supply situation, as these factors could trigger the next market movement [15].