【UNforex本周总结】美元稳固主导市场，黄金承压整理，贸易与政策博弈升温

Group 1 - The US dollar remains strong, supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and high US Treasury yields, with the dollar index approaching 99.70 [1] - The euro is under pressure due to economic weakness and easing expectations, leading to a continuous decline against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen has fallen below 154.50 against the dollar, reaching a new low for the year, raising speculation about potential official intervention [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are struggling to maintain momentum, hovering above the $4000 mark, with a brief breakout followed by a retreat due to reduced appeal of non-yielding assets [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy signals are a focal point, with officials maintaining a hawkish tone and emphasizing the need for patience in addressing inflation [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to below 70%, impacting the strength of the dollar and putting pressure on non-US currencies and precious metals [1] Group 3 - US-China trade relations continue to be a significant factor in market volatility, with short-term uncertainties likely to suppress market sentiment, while potential improvements could boost global economic recovery in the long term [2] - The European Central Bank has kept interest rates unchanged, with President Lagarde indicating that euro appreciation may reduce inflationary pressures, suggesting a cautious policy outlook [2] - The Japanese government emphasizes the importance of exchange rate stability, with expectations of potential measures to prevent excessive depreciation of the yen [2] Group 4 - Global stock markets have generally risen, particularly in the US, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices recording weekly gains, driven by strong performance in technology stocks [2] - Despite the hawkish Fed and a strong dollar potentially limiting gains, risk appetite in the market has improved [2] - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP employment data, are anticipated to provide further insights into economic direction [2] Group 5 - The overall market dynamics this week are shaped by a strong dollar, adjustments in Fed policy expectations, gold price fluctuations, and trade tensions [3] - The dollar maintains its dominant position, while gold shows weak rebound potential, with European and Japanese policy signals becoming new focal points for observation [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor Fed communications, economic data, and US-China negotiation progress, as these factors will continue to influence short-term market sentiment and direction [3]