美国制造业回流：真相大白，日韩肠子都悔青了！中国该怎么办？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. manufacturing sector's attempts to return to domestic production have not yielded significant improvements, with the manufacturing GDP share declining from 12% in 2009 to 10.3% in 2022, and projected to remain around 10% by 2025 [2][4][21] Group 1: U.S. Manufacturing Policies - The U.S. government has invested heavily in manufacturing revival, with initiatives like the $23 billion infrastructure investment and $390 billion for chips during the Obama administration, followed by tax cuts and tariffs under Trump, and further subsidies under Biden [2][4] - Despite these efforts, the manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has not significantly improved, indicating a slow recovery [2][12] Group 2: Employment Trends - Employment in manufacturing has dropped from 24.5% in 1970 to 8.5% currently, with new job creation primarily in the service sector [4][12] - Reports indicate that while over $3 trillion in investment has been announced, job creation has been modest, with Boeing facing significant operational challenges [4][12] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Impact - The U.S. strategy to reduce reliance on overseas manufacturing, particularly from China, has disrupted global supply chains, leading countries like Japan and South Korea to attempt similar moves, which resulted in increased costs and delays [6][10] - Japan's manufacturing costs rose by 30% due to supply chain disruptions, while South Korea's profits fell by 15% as they struggled with a lack of skilled labor and components from China [6][10] Group 4: Lessons from Japan and South Korea - Japan and South Korea's experiences highlight the challenges of relocating manufacturing back home, including rising costs and labor shortages, leading some companies to reconsider their decisions and move production back to China [8][10] - The aging workforce and low birth rates in these countries exacerbate the labor shortage, impacting their manufacturing capabilities [8][10] Group 5: China's Response - In response to U.S. tariffs and the manufacturing shift, China is focusing on high-tech industries, with projections indicating that by 2025, it will produce 60% of the world's electric vehicle batteries and increase its self-sufficiency in chips [10][12][17] - China's strategy includes investing in high-tech sectors and enhancing its workforce's skills to remain competitive globally [12][17] Group 6: Future Outlook - The U.S. manufacturing revival is slow, with significant challenges remaining, while China is leveraging the situation to upgrade its manufacturing capabilities [21] - The global manufacturing landscape is shifting, with Southeast Asia gaining an advantage as companies reassess their supply chains in light of U.S. policies [21]