通胀没平、就业拉胯，美联储陷入两难局， 12月降息成猜硬币游戏？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is a response to a weakening job market, creating a dilemma between supporting employment and controlling inflation [1][6][8]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - On October 29, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second cut of the year [3]. - Market speculation suggests a 55% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December, with a 45% chance of no change [4]. Group 2: Employment Market Conditions - The U.S. added only 81,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly below the mid-year average, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [6][9]. - Major companies, including Amazon and Ford, are implementing significant layoffs, indicating a tightening job market [9]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Current inflation stands at approximately 2.9%, still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, complicating the decision-making process [8]. - The Federal Reserve faces a classic dilemma: not lowering rates could harm the job market, while aggressive cuts could reignite inflation [8][14]. Group 4: Internal Federal Reserve Dynamics - The recent rate cut decision was not unanimous, with 10 votes in favor and 2 against, reflecting differing views on the economic situation [11]. - There is a division within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of monetary policy adjustments, with some advocating for more aggressive cuts while others prefer a cautious approach [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's current strategy appears defensive, aiming to ease market concerns without triggering inflation [14]. - Future decisions will heavily depend on incoming economic data, particularly regarding employment and inflation trends [14][16].