大反转！美联储紧急叫停止缩表，2.8万亿准备金要撑不住了？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates and halt its balance sheet reduction reflects a strategic shift in response to current economic challenges, aiming to manage liquidity and debt structure effectively [1][3][23]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year and aligning with market expectations [3][4]. - The Fed announced the complete termination of its balance sheet reduction plan starting December 1, concluding the quantitative tightening initiated in June 2022 [4][6]. Liquidity Management - The Fed will extend all maturing government bonds and reinvest the principal from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into short-term government bonds, a move anticipated by major financial institutions [6][7]. - This strategy aims to stabilize liquidity in the banking system, as reserves are nearing critical levels, and to mitigate potential market volatility [6][7]. Economic Context - The Fed's shift to short-term government bonds is a dual strategy addressing both liquidity needs and debt cost management, as the current economic environment shows signs of strain [7][23]. - The labor market is cooling, with rising risks in employment sectors, while inflation remains slightly above the Fed's target, complicating policy decisions [8][9][23]. Market Reactions - Initial market responses included a decline in major U.S. stock indices and a rise in the dollar index, indicating concerns over the implications of a slower rate-cutting pace on economic recovery [11][12][13]. - The divergence in market sentiment reflects the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy direction and its impact on asset prices [14][15][23]. Global Perspective - The Fed's approach to short-term government bonds is part of a broader trend among developed economies facing similar liquidity and debt management challenges [16][18]. - Other central banks, such as the Bank of Canada and those in the Eurozone and Japan, may adopt similar policies, indicating a synchronized easing trend despite limited policy space [18][19]. Future Outlook - The Fed's future policy direction will largely depend on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding employment and inflation, with potential implications for the pace of rate cuts [25]. - The transition to short-term government bond purchases is expected to become a regular liquidity management tool, with its scale and frequency serving as key indicators for future monetary policy [25].