鲍威尔“夺权”？美联储12月降息悬念拉满，美债波动升温

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut this year [2][4] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, which has created uncertainty in the market [2][17] - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet reduction starting December 1, 2023, halting the monthly reduction of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities [4][7] Summary by Sections Rate Cut and Market Reaction - The recent rate cut aligns with market expectations, but Powell's cautious tone has led to a reassessment of future rate cut probabilities, dropping from over 90% to below 70% for a December cut [17][20] - The stock market experienced volatility following Powell's statements, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries increased [18] Internal Disagreements within the Fed - There was notable dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, with 10 out of 12 members supporting the 25 basis point cut, while two members advocated for either a larger cut or maintaining the current rate [8][10] - The differing opinions reflect concerns about economic slowdown versus inflation risks, indicating a challenging balancing act for the Fed [10][24] Data Challenges and Economic Indicators - The government shutdown has created a "data vacuum," hindering the Fed's ability to make informed decisions based on official economic data [12][15] - Powell emphasized that private sector data cannot replace government statistics, which are crucial for understanding the economy [12][14] - The Fed's Beige Book indicated widespread low demand for labor across various regions and sectors, further complicating policy decisions [14][23] Future Outlook and Uncertainties - Powell's cautious approach is influenced by the lack of reliable data and internal disagreements, making the Fed's future rate path more uncertain than ever [26][29] - The potential for personnel changes within the Fed raises questions about future policy directions, adding another layer of uncertainty [24][26] - The end of balance sheet reduction may provide some liquidity relief, but the increasing issuance of U.S. debt could counteract this effect [26][29]