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Impactive Capital sees a structural shift creating upside for this wastewater company

Company Overview - Advanced Drainage Systems is a leading manufacturer of stormwater and onsite wastewater solutions, with a focus on plastic drainage products made from high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene [1][4] - The company operates through three primary segments: Pipe (56% of FY25 revenue), Allied Products (26%), and Infiltrator (18%), with a total addressable market of $15 billion and a market share of 75% to 95% across its segments [4][5] Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong growth, with earnings per share increasing almost 10 times since its IPO and a compound annual growth rate of 28% [5] - Advanced Drainage Systems has consistently achieved returns on invested capital above 20% and has a history of increasing dividends and share buybacks [5] Market Dynamics - Despite a 3% decline in construction spending year-to-date, the company's revenue is expected to remain stable due to several factors, including the increasing market share of plastic pipes, which have grown from 20% in 2010 to over 40% [7][8] - The company has enhanced its exposure to the residential repair and remodel market through acquisitions, positioning itself to benefit from the current low levels of existing home sales [9] Margin Management - Concerns about margin compression due to construction spending weakness are being addressed by the company's strategic diversification into higher-margin Allied Products and Infiltrator offerings [11] - Advanced Drainage Systems has a unique approach to managing input costs, toggling between recycled and virgin resins based on oil prices, which allows for better margin management [12] Future Outlook - Impactive Capital projects that Advanced Drainage Systems will return to mid-teens EPS growth, with a base case three-year total return of 69% and an internal rate of return of 19% [13]