今年这个市场翻倍！中国引领了增长点

Core Insights - The global LNG bunkering volume has exceeded the record of 2.6 million tons for the entire year of 2024 in the first three quarters of this year, with an expected total of approximately 4 million tons, nearly doubling year-on-year. China is identified as the primary driver of this growth [1]. Group 1: Market Share and Growth - Asia's share of the global LNG bunkering market has increased from 45% in 2024 to 47% in the first three quarters of 2025, with China being the sole contributor to this growth despite Europe having more LNG bunkering vessels and stronger policy incentives [2]. - By 2025, China's LNG bunkering volume is projected to account for 24% of the global total, a significant increase from 16% last year, making it the largest single LNG fuel consumption market globally [4]. Group 2: Supply and Pricing Dynamics - The rapid rise of China's LNG bunkering market is closely linked to a structural surplus in its domestic natural gas market, with increased pipeline gas imports and domestic production leading to a short-term supply surplus [7]. - Long-term contracts are generally linked to Henry Hub or crude oil prices, with average prices over the past 12 months being approximately $3.5 lower per million British thermal units (MMBtu) than the JKM price. This pricing advantage allows major energy companies like PetroChina to resell LNG at a slight premium, creating a competitive cost structure for LNG bunkering in China [8]. Group 3: Demand Trends - As of early October this year, there are 788 LNG dual-fuel capable vessels in operation globally, with an additional 631 under construction, indicating a growing nominal demand for LNG as a fuel [11]. - The actual demand for LNG as a marine fuel was only 43% of nominal demand in 2024, but this ratio increased to 50% in the first three quarters of 2025, suggesting a rising preference among shipowners for LNG despite weakening fuel competitiveness [11]. - Analysts expect that with new LNG production capacities coming online globally, LNG prices may decrease, enhancing its economic viability, while traditional fuels face higher punitive costs related to carbon and sulfur emissions [11].