太阳纸业(002078)：25Q4改善可期

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.82 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, an increase of 2.7% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 28.94 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% [1] Group 1: Pulp and Paper Market Outlook - The current market for pulp and paper shows limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics, which hinders further price increases for pulp [2] - Most paper manufacturers lack sufficient profit recovery momentum, reducing their enthusiasm for purchasing wood pulp, which negatively impacts the effective uplift of wood pulp price levels [2] - It is expected that pulp and paper prices will stabilize at the bottom, with Q4 profits for the company in this segment anticipated to remain steady, although the new pulp line in Nanning is expected to contribute additional output [2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion Plans - The company has clear capacity expansion plans, including a 140,000-ton specialty paper project expected to enter trial production in Q1 2026 [3] - Plans include the construction of a 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp and alkali recovery project, as well as a 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project [3] - In the Nanning area, the first phase of high-end packaging paper production lines is set to begin implementation in H1 2024, with production expected to start in August 2025 [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on the performance in the first three quarters of 2025 and considering the current low levels of pulp and paper prices, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts [4] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.43 billion yuan, 3.99 billion yuan, and 4.66 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12X, 10X, and 9X [4]