泡泡玛特(9992.HK):高增延续 旺季来临 展望积极
Ge Long Hui·2025-11-01 13:04

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in overall revenue for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 245-250%, driven by strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [1] Overall Performance - The overall revenue growth for Q3 2025 is projected at 245-250%, with Q1 and H1 showing growth rates of 165-170% and 204.4% respectively [1] - The company anticipates a sequential acceleration in growth, particularly in Q4, which is traditionally a peak sales season [1] Domestic Market - Domestic revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to grow by 185-190%, with Q1 showing a growth of 95-100% and H1 at 135% [1] - The company estimates Q2 domestic growth at over 170%, indicating a sequential acceleration in Q3 [1] Channel Performance - Offline channels experienced a year-on-year growth of 130-135% in Q3 2025, while online channels saw a significant increase of 300-305% [2] - The online growth is attributed to the pre-sale shipments of the labubu series, which predominantly occurred in Q3 [2] International Market - Overseas revenue growth for Q3 2025 is reported at 365-370%, down from 475-480% in Q1 [2] - Regional performance indicates that the Asia-Pacific market is expected to remain stable, while the Americas and Europe show slight declines in growth rates [2][3] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about Q4 due to upcoming seasonal events like Halloween and Christmas, which are expected to drive strong consumer demand [3] - The company is expanding its product offerings and enhancing its comprehensive operational platform, focusing on IP incubation and consumer engagement [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase its overseas business share, targeting key cities in the US and Europe, and aims to establish regional warehouses to reduce costs [4] - A focus on innovation and a controlled approach to SKU management is expected to maintain product quality while minimizing excess [4] Financial Projections - Revenue growth projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected growth rates of 172%, 38%, and 36% respectively [5] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit margins, with EPS estimates rising to 8.16, 11.59, and 16.16 CNY per share for the respective years [5]