11月1日金价：大家要有心理准备，下周，金价或将迎来大风暴

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with international gold prices under pressure from a strong US dollar, while domestic prices in China are rising due to different market dynamics [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 1, 2025, international spot gold opened at $4036.48 per ounce and closed at $4001.93, down $34.59, while domestic gold prices in China rose, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold contract closing at 921.84 yuan per gram, up 0.39% [3]. - The price difference between domestic and international gold has reached a historical high of 205 yuan per gram, with domestic prices significantly higher than international prices when converted to RMB [3]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy changes, including a 25 basis point rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening, which theoretically supports gold prices [5][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have not led to a significant increase in gold's safe-haven demand, as the market has partially absorbed these risks [5][8]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to 107.64, creating a "see-saw" effect with gold prices, as a stronger dollar typically suppresses gold [5][10]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that if gold prices fall below $3973 per ounce, there could be further downside potential to $3847 per ounce [9]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, with the RSI at 44.9, indicating continued short-term downward pressure on gold prices [5][9]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Supply - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months, reaching 2292 tons by October 2025, a 12% increase year-on-year, supporting domestic gold prices [5][10]. - The domestic gold market is experiencing strong demand, particularly in the context of traditional consumption peaks, although seasonal demand is expected to decline in the coming months [8][14]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious of high premiums associated with gold jewelry and the potential pitfalls of leveraged trading in gold [12][14]. - The gold recycling market has seen prices fluctuate, with current recovery prices ranging from 888 to 913 yuan per gram, reflecting market volatility [7][14].