普京若退位，俄欧真能“和好”？梅德韦杰夫：欧洲别做梦，结局超惨！

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical dynamics surrounding Russia, Europe, and China are complex and uncertain, particularly in the context of potential leadership changes in Russia and the implications for international relations [1][2]. Group 1: Russia's Stance and Strategy - Russia has consistently emphasized the importance of security and territorial integrity since Putin's rise to power in 2000, indicating that core interests will not easily change regardless of leadership [2]. - Medvedev has stated that Russia is not interested in war with Europe, but warns that misjudgments by European nations could lead to severe consequences [2]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted over three years, with Russia's economy enduring sanctions yet remaining resilient, highlighting its ability to navigate through adversity [2]. Group 2: Energy and Economic Relations - In 2021, Europe relied on Russia for 40% of its natural gas, which is projected to drop to 10% by 2024, yet the existing pipeline infrastructure still connects the two regions [2]. - The trade volume between China and Russia is expected to exceed $240 billion in 2024, showcasing a strong economic partnership that benefits both nations [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - Medvedev's comments reflect a growing assertiveness in Russian foreign policy, emphasizing that a change in leadership will not resolve deep-rooted conflicts between Russian security needs and European values [4]. - The European Union has spent over a thousand billion euros in aid to Ukraine, leading to rising energy prices and social unrest within Europe, indicating a challenging economic environment [4]. - The rise of nationalism and far-right movements in Europe is causing economic strain, with European companies facing high operational costs and increasing unemployment [5]. Group 4: China-Russia Relations - The relationship between China and Russia is characterized by mutual interests rather than personal ties, with both countries collaborating on strategic stability and anti-hegemonic efforts [5][6]. - Cultural exchanges between China and Russia are thriving, with increased tourism and educational interactions, reinforcing the bilateral relationship [6]. - Medvedev predicts that Europe's optimistic expectations regarding Russia will be shattered, leading to further difficulties for European nations [6].