A股迎大变局，政策调整提速，降税利好真来？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares on October 29 is accompanied by underlying concerns, suggesting that the market's enthusiasm may be short-lived and could lead to a pullback [1][25]. Market Performance - On October 29, A-shares saw a significant increase in trading volume, rising from 1.2 trillion to 2.29 trillion, indicating a lively market atmosphere, but this volume spike may not be a reliable signal of sustained growth [1][5]. - The market index crossed the 4000-point mark, with technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions, which typically necessitate a correction to consolidate the trend [3][5]. Sector Analysis - The market is experiencing a clear sector divergence, with cyclical sectors like energy, metals, and photovoltaics performing well, while defensive sectors such as beverages and liquor are declining [9][11]. - Institutional investors are showing a preference for sectors like AI and automotive components, while also significantly buying into photovoltaics and quantum technology [11][17]. External Influences - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 30 is expected to influence market sentiment, with a general anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut, adding uncertainty to the market [13][17]. - Concurrently, geopolitical factors, such as Trump's comments on tariffs and fentanyl, introduce additional market uncertainties [15][21]. Policy Support - Recent measures from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to facilitate cross-border trade and initiatives from the Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission to attract long-term capital are seen as solid policy support for the A-share market [15][17]. - These policy actions are expected to alleviate external trade pressures and provide a more stable influx of long-term capital into the A-share market [17][21]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to wait for a market pullback and stabilization before increasing positions, emphasizing a cautious approach rather than aggressive buying [7][25]. - Maintaining a controlled position and avoiding impulsive trading decisions is highlighted as a prudent strategy in the current market environment [23][25].