11月1日金价：大家要有心理准备，下周，金价或将重现15年历史

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to significant market fluctuations, with a warning from major financial institutions that prices could drop to $3,525 per ounce, despite a recent peak above $4,000 [1][5]. Market Dynamics - On October 7, gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, marking a historical high, but subsequently fell by 8% within two days, resulting in a market value loss exceeding $2.5 trillion [1][3]. - Factors contributing to the surge in gold prices include increased economic and geopolitical uncertainties, fears of inflation, and substantial purchases by central banks, with a reported total of 415 tons of gold bought in the first half of 2025 [3][5]. - The volatility has been characterized by rapid price changes, including a significant drop of over 6% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline in 12 years [3][5]. Investment Sentiment - Investors are experiencing heightened anxiety due to the unpredictable nature of gold prices, with some expressing hesitation about further investments despite earlier gains [3][5]. - Major banks have issued warnings regarding the increased risks associated with gold investments, advising investors to manage their positions carefully [8][9]. Price Trends and Predictions - The price of gold has shown a dramatic increase, with some jewelry brands reporting price hikes of over 40% since the beginning of the year, reaching as high as 1,238 yuan per gram [6]. - Predictions for gold prices vary widely among institutions, with some forecasting a potential rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months, while others suggest a longer-term target of $5,000 [13][16]. Historical Context - Historical trends indicate that gold has experienced significant fluctuations, including a notable decline from over $800 per ounce to $250 between 1980 and 2000, highlighting its non-linear price behavior [13][14]. - The current bull market in gold is believed to have started in 2019, with prices increasing over 200% since then, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and global economic conditions [8][14]. Investment Strategies - Experts recommend a cautious approach for ordinary investors, emphasizing the importance of long-term strategies and risk management rather than short-term speculation [9][11]. - The current market environment suggests that gold should be viewed as a diversification tool within investment portfolios, with suggested allocations ranging from 10% to 20% [16][17].