2025年是尽快卖房，还是咬牙买房？曹德旺给出了明确方向

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing fluctuations, leading to confusion among potential buyers and sellers regarding whether to sell or buy properties in 2025 [1][3] - Notable entrepreneur Cao Dewang emphasizes that housing should primarily serve as a residence rather than an investment, suggesting that families with genuine needs should consider purchasing homes if financially feasible [1][3] Market Overview - In 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing was 1.02 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, with sales amounting to 9.5 trillion yuan, down 12.3% [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, 42 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices decline, with an average drop of approximately 3.2% [3] - The market shows significant differentiation, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities maintaining stable prices, while third and fourth-tier cities experience larger declines, some exceeding 15% [3][6] Population Dynamics - Over 25 million people moved between cities in 2024, with about 65% relocating to first-tier and strong second-tier cities, driving housing demand in these areas [3] Future Predictions - The real estate market adjustment is expected to continue, but a sharp decline is not anticipated, with average price drops projected to remain under 5% in 2025 [6] - The differentiation among cities will become more pronounced, with first-tier cities likely to maintain stability while third and fourth-tier cities face ongoing downward pressure [6] Policy Environment - The policy landscape is expected to remain relatively loose, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market rather than stimulating investment demand [6] - Approximately 70% of homebuyers view the current policy environment as favorable for genuine housing needs [6] Recommendations for Buyers - For genuine homebuyers, if financial conditions allow (with a down payment not exceeding 50% of total assets and monthly payments under 40% of monthly income), 2025 may present a good opportunity to enter the market [6][8] - For investors holding properties in third or fourth-tier cities, it may be wise to consider divesting during stable market conditions to reallocate funds to other investment channels or properties in quality cities [8][10] Investment Considerations - The average return on real estate investment in 2024 was 2.1%, lower than the average return of 3.5% from bank financial products, indicating that real estate may no longer be the optimal investment choice [8] - Diversifying asset allocation is recommended, as real estate should not dominate a household's asset portfolio, which averaged 68% in China compared to 40% in developed countries [12] Conclusion - The real estate market in 2025 is in a state of adjustment but also presents opportunities for informed decision-making based on individual needs and financial situations [13]