潘石屹又一次说中了，不出意外的话，国内楼市或迎来3大走向

Core Insights - The real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from a bullish to a bearish outlook, as indicated by the actions of industry leaders like Pan Shiyi, who sold off substantial property holdings in 2018, predicting a downturn in the market [3][4][22] Group 1: Market Trends - The housing market is expected to enter a "slow decline" phase, with a persistent downward trend due to an unsustainable price-to-income ratio, particularly in first-tier cities where the ratio is as high as 40 times [6][10] - Recent data shows a dramatic drop in new home sales, with a 70% month-on-month decline in a popular city and a year-on-year price drop exceeding 12%, indicating real and ongoing downward pressure on housing prices [8][10] - Predictions suggest that overall housing prices may decline by approximately 10% from their peak by 2027, reflecting a necessary market self-adjustment [10] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A "selling wave" is anticipated to begin in 2024, as property owners seek to liquidate assets to avoid further depreciation, leading to a significant increase in second-hand property listings [12] - The rapid urbanization over the past 15 years has resulted in a surplus of housing, with approximately 600 million buildings capable of accommodating over 3 billion people, leading to a lack of upward potential in property values [13] - The value of real estate is expected to accelerate in its differentiation, with older high-rise buildings facing the greatest challenges due to increasing maintenance costs and declining living conditions [14][16] Group 3: Recommendations for Stakeholders - Stakeholders are advised to recognize that any policy easing, such as lowering down payments or interest rates, will only provide short-term relief and cannot reverse the long-term market adjustment trend [18] - It is recommended to avoid unnecessary property purchases unless driven by essential needs, and to optimize asset holdings, particularly for older, lower-quality properties [20] - Maintaining financial health and reducing unnecessary liabilities is crucial during periods of economic uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of cash flow management [20]