今年金九银十，成色如何？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in October showed a mixed performance, with new home sales experiencing a slight month-on-month increase but a significant year-on-year decline, indicating a lack of confidence among buyers and a potential need for stronger policy support [2][4][8]. Market Performance - In October, new home transactions increased by 1% month-on-month but fell by 36% year-on-year. The top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 253 billion yuan, a mere 0.1% increase from the previous month but a drastic 41.9% decrease compared to the same month last year [2][4]. - Cumulatively, from January to October, 30 monitored cities recorded a total transaction volume of 98.25 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 7%, worsening from a 2% drop the previous month. The top 100 real estate companies reported total sales of 25,766.6 billion yuan, down 16% year-on-year, marking the worst performance since 2019 [4][5]. Regional Insights - In Shanghai, new home sales reached 11,054 units in October, with a 0.3% month-on-month price increase and a 5.6% year-on-year increase, making it a leader in the market [8]. - Beijing's new home sales were 3,168 units, down 2.16% month-on-month and 23.09% year-on-year. The second-hand home market saw 12,087 transactions, reflecting a 23.71% month-on-month decline and a 30.4% year-on-year drop [14]. - In Shenzhen, new home sales fell by 14.09% month-on-month and 34.46% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 16.90% month-on-month but increased by 27.28% year-on-year [14]. Price Trends - The second-hand home price index showed a 0.84% month-on-month decline, with no cities reporting price increases in September. In contrast, new home prices rose by 0.28% month-on-month [18][20]. - High-end properties continue to perform well, with significant sales recorded in luxury segments, indicating a divergence in market performance between luxury and affordable housing [21][23]. Market Sentiment - The current market reflects a dual reality: while ordinary buyers are hesitant due to fears of falling prices, wealthy individuals are actively purchasing high-value properties, creating a stark contrast in market dynamics [25][28]. - The market is characterized by a "K-shaped" recovery, where demand for affordable housing remains weak, while demand for premium properties is robust, suggesting a complex future landscape for the real estate sector [28].